Results
Category Fixed income
The case for a higher neutral interest rate
6 November 2023
In our view, the level of real interest rates at which central bank policy is neither stimulating or restricting growth has moved upwards.
Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?
12 October 2023
Central banks have suppressed longer-dated bond yields, according to our analysis, undermining the value of an inverted yield curve as a recession signal.