Global Perspectives

An unstable equilibrium Fixed income

An unstable equilibrium

The global economy has entered what increasingly looks like an unstable equilibrium – a delicate balance between powerful tailwinds and equally powerful risks.

AI‑driven investment is accelerating growth and supporting market confidence, yet debt dynamics, policy uncertainty, and shifting global capital flows are stretching the system in new and unpredictable ways.

Are you prepared for the shift when it comes?

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19 Feb 2026 1 min read

Market viewpoints

May 2026

  • In a world of energy shocks, we back US credit

    Looking across global credit markets, Europe remains more exposed to higher energy prices than the US in our view, leaving us neutral on European credit in the near term. The longer the conflict persists, the greater the drag on European growth, increasing the likelihood that markets demand a higher risk premium should fundamentals deteriorate as we expect. This vulnerability is compounded by the ECB’s relatively narrow focus on inflation, which limits its flexibility to ease policy in the face of a combined growth and energy shock, particularly when compared with the Fed’s broader mandate.

    Adam Whiteley
    Adam Whiteley Head of Global Credit
  • Markets are recalibrating to a higher-for-longer policy backdrop

    The conflict in the Middle East has pushed up absolute yields in investment grade credit, and we believe this presents an opportunity to add to US credit holdings. Fundamentals remain resilient, with double digit earnings growth and elevated levels of supply being met by strong demand. Although we’re wary that M&A risks are rising at this point in the cycle, we believe free cash flows are high enough to offset an upward creep in leverage levels.

    Erin Spalsbury
    Erin Spalsbury Head of US Investment Grade Credit
  • Time to buy select issuers impacted by higher energy prices

    With growth concerns elevated, municipal bonds have been caught up in broader market volatility, pushing absolute yields higher. Those sectors exposed to higher energy costs have moved into focus, including airports, toll roads, seaports and utilities. When selling becomes indiscriminate, fundamentals are often ignored. This is an ideal backdrop for active investors with strong credit research teams who can hunt out issuers offering robust liquidity and operating flexibility even in a world of higher energy prices.

    Jeff Burger
    Jeff Burger Senior Portfolio Manager

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