Executive summary

• The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has exacerbated strains between Russia and its European neighbours, and relations have deteriorated to levels not seen since the Cold War.
• Although a tragedy, the conflict has acted as a catalyst to greater cohesion amongst European Union member states, NATO and European countries more broadly. We believe there are three ways the crisis has increased integration:

1. Energy: Any perception of Russia as a strategic partner in energy have come to an end, and a shift to replace Russian oil and gas supplies is underway. Although the road is likely to be bumpy, we believe that a robust and co-ordinated EU wide energy policy will emerge that would have been unthinkable even a short time ago
2. Defence: NATO has united, and EU defence spending is likely to increase to meet minimum NATO spending requirements. Sweden and Finland have dropped their military neutrality, and represent significant additions to the military alliance
3. Refugees: EU member states bordering Ukraine have borne the brunt of the humanitarian crisis as refugees flee the conflict, but centralised funds have been made available and further action is likely to be taken to better share the fiscal burden